Friday, July 10, 2020

The brutal facts of the corona plague and the impossible equation

The situation in Italy is worse than many understands.

And it is not that the Italians are unhealthy or have a bad healthcare system.

Contrary, they are one of the healthiest people in the world, and the health care system in Lombardy is among the best in the world.

In spite of this, the death rate is now very high.

So, what is going on?

I will now look at the situation in Italy, where I have many friends, and therefore follow the situation closely.

It is worth to keep in mind, that according to Italian scientists, the virus string in Italy is different to the one in China. Maybe this is a more lethal string, maybe not.

Some think that the high death rate is down to limited testing, meaning a lot of lightly sick people goes undetected.

In Italy, testing varies from province to province, and some provinces are so stretched that they can not test enough.

However, Veneto – where Venice is, has done most testing in the world and only 8 % of the tested have been positive.

As 92 % are well, we have reason to believe that they find as many sick as anyone could find.

So far, this small province has done 49,288 tests and has had 4,031 cases.

Veneto therefore gives an idea of what to expect in the rest of the world.

Let’s now look at the death rate.

The death rate in Veneto as it stands is 131 dead = 3,24 %

As death often occur some days or weeks after the infection, unfortunately more people of these 4,031 will die, so the final death rate will be higher than 3,24% ☹

In Veneto there are only 236 people in intensive care – and as far as I know the hospitals there are not yet overloaded, but still able to provide care.

In Lombardy, however, where the Hospitals are overloaded – the death rate now stands at 11,45 %.

Part of this would be down to less testing than Vento (39 % of the tested are sick) – but it is definitely also down to that the hospitals are overloaded as there are numerous reports that some hospital doesn’t even give ICU (=Intensive Care Unit) treatment to people over 60, as they have to prioritize.

So as long as the hospitals are coping, we see a death rate of 3,24 % 

(And again, please keep in mind this is not the final death rate for the people currently infected, and that the final rate will be higher, if not much higher.)

However, when overloaded, this will be much higher, even though hopefully less than the 11,45 %

The situation in Veneto tells us to expect a death rate of over 3,24% if the infection is slowed down so hospitals can cope.

The situation in Lombardy shows that when not coping, it will be much higher.

Let’s now look at hospitalizations and intensive care.

Of the 4,031 cases – 223 are cured. As we don’t know if they have been hospitalized or not, I remove them from the calculations below – using the number 4031 less 223 = 3808 for compression.

Of these 3808 cases, 843 are in ordinary hospital, 236 are in ICU, and 131 has died = 1210.

This gives a total rate of hospitalization of 31,78%

As the hospitalization rate increase over time when persons are sick – the final number will be higher.

The rate of ICU treatment (given that all the dead had ICU treatment before they died) is 9,6%

Again, the ICU rate will increase over time and the final number will be higher.

A conservative estimate is that at least

32 % will need hospitalization

10 % will need ICU treatment

3,24 % will die (as long as the hospitals can cope.)

x % will die when the hospitals are overwhelmed.

Where does this take us?

Many estimate that 80 % of the population will get the infection.

In Italy this would mean around 48,000,000

Even if the hospitals cope and the death rate stand at 3,24 % this is a terrible number of over 1,550,000 or about 2 % of the total population that will die, even with the best of care.

If not coping, and the death rate gets much higher, this could mean the biggest disaster the earth has ever seen.

Italy has for some time now implemented a very heavy lockdown. People can go to work and buy food, but most other things are closed. They are using the slogan “io resto a casa” = I stay at home.

This has helped a little by lowering the daily infection increase rate from around 25 % to 15 %.

However, this is not at all enough as in real terms yesterday saw 5986 new infections – by far the most in a day – and 627 deaths – also by far the most in a day.

Unfortunately, more have to be done to slow the infection rate – as otherwise a very high percentage of the population will die.

Everyone that need ICU treatment, should be able to get it, but it requires not only ICU beds, but also doctors and unfortunately, they get infected as well.

So far 3,359 doctors are infected and 13 have died.

And this is not only a problem in Italy where Lombardy has been out of ICU beds for a while, sending patients to other provinces, yet not overwhelmed.

A couple of days ago a hospital in Harrow, London, run out of ICU beds.

Sweden is estimating that by Wednesday or Thursday next week, all of Stockholm will be out of ICU beds.

A Swedish leading doctor in a hospital in Stockholm, stated that by this weekend, or early next week, we will have to choose which people get care, and which get not.

Italy had 5000 ICU beds when this started. Most of course used for other things like heart attacks and so on.

Now they have managed to increase it to 8400 of which currently 2655 are used for coronavirus.

Even if they could find enough doctors to be able to use 5000 ICU beds for coronavirus, this is a mere fraction of what is needed if the infection rate is not slowed down.

If 10 % of 48,000,000 need an ICU bed, that is 4,800,000 ICU beds.

Sweden reported recently that it is estimated that some patients need 4-6 weeks in ICU beds for this sickness and we know that “Patient 1” in Italy – 38-year-old and healthy – was in ICU for 3-4 weeks.

If all 4,800,000 would use just one week in an ICU bed, we need to slow down the virus so it goes over 960 weeks, or 18,5 years.

If 2 weeks, we talk about 37 years. And so on.

We have seen from Italy that the already heavy lockdown, is not heavy enough.

This gives the impossible equation.

We cannot let people die – so it has to be slowed down.

But an economy in heavy lockdown for 20 years – that doesn’t work either.

Of course, it is a natural instinct to want to hope for the best, but if it causes us to not see the truth and plan for it, that is not really going to help.

Some people have hoped that heath will stop the virus, but the number of cases is increasing rapidly in countries that have the heath already.

Other hope for a miracle drug, but pneumonia has been around for ages, without scientist finding a cure so far.

Others might point to other countries that report lower numbers, and whilst it could be correct, numbers have to be treated with caution, so I will address this point.

It is well known that the number of cases in both UK, Sweden and Norway are under-reported.

And if we look at a country like Austria where 549 Norwegian people according to VG.no were infected after having been on holiday to Austria.

But at the same time Austria reported very few cases.

This indicate that the numbers in Austria at that time were incorrect.

Norway has even officially stated that not all deaths by coronavirus will be counted, stating to VG.no: Since 70-100-year-olds are most prone to serious progress, we expect that some will die in nursing homes or at home and not in hospitals. Some will not be recognized as Covid-19 deaths.

Under-reporting cases and deaths, no matter how good the motive for it is, will only make the crisis worse.

Of course there could be other reasons for lower numbers, but whatever the reason for lower numbers are – if we plan for the worse, we are better prepared, – and as Italy is worst hit and are very transparent with the numbers, there is no reason, not to go by the numbers from Italy.

Of course, a vaccine could potentially help to some degree, but even the flu vaccine only helps around 40-60% of the people, (differs from year to year).

But then the virus could mutate, making the vaccine useless.

It is already a catastrophe, and the virus has just started.

Unless it is stopped this could be the worst catastrophe ever.

What can we as ordinary people do?

Our world has turned away from God in huge numbers. This both inside and outside churches. Beating hearts are stopped in millions every month and God’s commandments are not respected.

Leading churches promote porn and half-porn.

Only God holds the solution – so let us all turn to Him and seek Jesus with all our hearts, for without Him I don’t see any good solutions, to what otherwise could be the worst catastrophe ever.

This article is taken from this twitter thread:

Emanuel Imanuelsen
Emanuel Imanuelsen
Emanuel Imanuelsen is a writer for Latest from Europe. He is from Sweden and is a Christian, husband, father and businessman.

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