Until a vaccine comes – and it might never come – or a majority of the people are immune – and it is not at all sure that people get immune – lockdowns will not end.
Everyone seem to understand that if lockdowns are lifted, new waves will come.
So how does society avoid going bankrupt while hoping for a vaccine or immunity?
If the current lockdowns only have got the reproduction rate down to slightly below 1, then it is clear that they cannot really be lifted much before it goes over 1, and the pandemic accelerates.
But a heavy lockdown is clearly not good for the economy, so what will the governments do to be able to ease the lockdowns as much as possible?
This is what they might want to do:
- Ban people from leaving the house, unless using a contact tracing app. As soon as an infection person is detected, then quarantine the infected and all people that have been close to the infected person. And possibly also them that has been close to them, that has been close to the infected.
- Ban people from leaving the house without masks and gloves. This has already happened in many countries.
As of now it seems like the plan is to start with voluntary apps, but Google and Apple are planning to build it into the operating system and using Bluetooth to track whom we have been close to.
Masks and gloves are one thing, but contract tracing could be seriously misused, so here are serious dangers.
However as this will make it possible to have less harsh lockdowns – it is highly likely that this will be introduced.
Another problem with how much infections the society can cope with is this:
Ventilators can be built, but dead doctors and nurses cannot be replaced quickly.
As such there is a serious danger that the number of hospital beds will diminish as times goes on.
I fear that this is what we see in Italy.
The number of people in hospital and intensive care has gone down, in spite of that the number of infected has continued to rise.
As a result, the percentage of patients receiving intensive care has gone down from around 10 % to less than 3 %.
However, it is unlikely that the number of patients needing intensive care has gone down, meaning that they are not able to provide the care that patients needs to survive, which probably is the reason why the death rate has sky rocketed.
As Italians are helpful, they would not deny care if they could give it, so the only logical explanation is that they are running short on staff – and so far over 100 doctors are dead and 17,306 health care workers are infected.
If we cannot protect health care workers from being infected, the number of beds will go down.
Not only is it irresponsible not to give them the PPE they need, it will also backfire as less patients can get care.
As such this should be a priority, as we otherwise could find ourselves in a situation where hospital beds over time goes down.
The most worrying is that there is no or only short immunity against other coronavirus and people can get infected by them many times during life.
If people won’t be immune by having the sickness, vaccine is unlikely to work.
This might be the plague after Black Death that the human race cannot easily get rid of.
As such the only solution is upwards.
Jesus does care.
If we all turn to Him with all our hearts, He is merciful and will help us.
If not, there might be no light in the tunnel.